Late Afternoon Soaring Forecast for Soboba
by Jérôme Daoust Paragliding & Speed Flying School

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Friday, 2015/6/12. Hindsight: Bad & Guess. Hindsight condition recording suspended.

Thursday, 2015/6/11. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Wednesday, 2015/6/10. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Tuesday, 2015/6/9. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Monday, 2015/6/8. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Sunday, 2015/6/7. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Saturday, 2015/6/6. Hindsight: Bad & Sure.

Friday, 2015/6/5. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Thursday, 2015/6/4. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Wednesday, 2015/6/3. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Tuesday, 2015/6/2. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Monday, 2015/6/1. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Sunday, 2015/5/31. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Saturday, 2015/5/30. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Friday, 2015/5/29. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Thursday, 2015/5/28. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Wednesday, 2015/5/27. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Tuesday, 2015/5/26. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Monday, 2015/5/25. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Sunday, 2015/5/24. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Saturday, 2015/5/23. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Friday, 2015/5/22. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Thursday, 2015/5/21. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Wednesday, 2015/5/20. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Tuesday, 2015/5/19. Hindsight: Good & Sure.

Monday, 2015/5/18. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Sunday, 2015/5/17. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Saturday, 2015/5/16. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Friday, 2015/5/15. Hindsight: Bad & Sure.

Thursday, 2015/5/14. Hindsight: Bad & Sure.

Wednesday, 2015/5/13. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Tuesday, 2015/5/12. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Monday, 2015/5/11. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Sunday, 2015/5/10. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Saturday, 2015/5/9. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Friday, 2015/5/8. Hindsight: Bad & Sure.

Thursday, 2015/5/7. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Wednesday, 2015/5/6. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Tuesday, 2015/5/5. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Monday, 2015/5/4. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Sunday, 2015/5/3. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Saturday, 2015/5/2. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Friday, 2015/5/1. Hindsight: Bad & Sure.

Thursday, 2015/4/30. Hindsight: Bad & Sure.

Wednesday, 2015/4/29. Hindsight: Bad & Sure.

Tuesday, 2015/4/28. Hindsight: Bad & Sure.

Monday, 2015/4/27. Hindsight: Bad & Sure.

Sunday, 2015/4/26. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Saturday, 2015/4/25. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Friday, 2015/4/24. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Thursday, 2015/4/23. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Wednesday, 2015/4/22. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Tuesday, 2015/4/21. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Monday, 2015/4/20. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Sunday, 2015/4/19. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Saturday, 2015/4/18. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Friday, 2015/4/17. Hindsight: Bad & Sure.

Thursday, 2015/4/16. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Wednesday, 2015/4/15. Hindsight: Bad & Sure.

Tuesday, 2015/4/14. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Monday, 2015/4/13. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Sunday, 2015/4/12. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Saturday, 2015/4/11. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Friday, 2015/4/10. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Thursday, 2015/4/9. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Wednesday, 2015/4/8. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Tuesday, 2015/4/7. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Monday, 2015/4/6. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Sunday, 2015/4/5. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Saturday, 2015/4/4. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Friday, 2015/4/3. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Thursday, 2015/4/2. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Wednesday, 2015/4/1. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Tuesday, 2015/3/31. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Monday, 2015/3/30. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Sunday, 2015/3/29. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Saturday, 2015/3/28. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Friday, 2015/3/27. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Thursday, 2015/3/26. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Wednesday, 2015/3/25. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Tuesday, 2015/3/24. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Monday, 2015/3/23. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Sunday, 2015/3/22. Hindsight: Good & Sure.

Saturday, 2015/3/21. Hindsight: Good & Sure.

Friday, 2015/3/20. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Thursday, 2015/3/19. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Wednesday, 2015/3/18. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Tuesday, 2015/3/17. Hindsight: Good & Sure.

Monday, 2015/3/16. Hindsight: Good & Sure.

Sunday, 2015/3/15. Hindsight: Bad & Sure.

Saturday, 2015/3/14. Hindsight: Bad & Sure.

Friday, 2015/3/13. Hindsight: Bad & Sure.

Thursday, 2015/3/12. Hindsight: Bad & Sure.

Wednesday, 2015/3/11. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Tuesday, 2015/3/10. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Monday, 2015/3/9. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Sunday, 2015/3/8. Hindsight: Good & Sure.

Saturday, 2015/3/7. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Friday, 2015/3/6. Hindsight: Bad & Sure.

Thursday, 2015/3/5. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Wednesday, 2015/3/4. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Tuesday, 2015/3/3. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Monday, 2015/3/2. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Sunday, 2015/3/1. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Saturday, 2015/2/28. Hindsight: Good & Sure.

Friday, 2015/2/27. Hindsight: Good & Sure.

Thursday, 2015/2/26. Hindsight: Good & Sure.

Wednesday, 2015/2/25. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Tuesday, 2015/2/24. Hindsight: Good & Sure.

Monday, 2015/2/23. Hindsight: Good & Sure.

Sunday, 2015/2/22. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Saturday, 2015/2/21. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Friday, 2015/2/20. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Thursday, 2015/2/19. Hindsight: Good & Sure.

Wednesday, 2015/2/18. Hindsight: Good & Sure.

Tuesday, 2015/2/17. Hindsight: Good & Sure.

Monday, 2015/2/16. Hindsight: Bad & Guess. TFR before 3pm.

Sunday, 2015/2/15. Hindsight: Bad & Sure. TFR.

Saturday, 2015/2/14. Hindsight: Bad & Sure. TFR.

Friday, 2015/2/13. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Thursday, 2015/2/12. Hindsight: Bad & Sure.

Wednesday, 2015/2/11. Hindsight: Bad & Sure.

Tuesday, 2015/2/10. Hindsight: Bad & Sure.

Monday, 2015/2/9. Hindsight: Bad & Sure.

Sunday, 2015/2/8. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Saturday, 2015/2/7. Hindsight: Bad & Sure.

Friday, 2015/2/6. 10:11am
Sunset at 5:23pm. RASP: SW/9knot(10mAlt)/2pm, SW/7/3pm, SW/7/4pm. Weather.com: SW/10mph/2pm, SSW/9/3pm, W/7/4pm, Sunny, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: WSW-W/5knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: (2 days old) SW/8mph/2pm, SW/8/3pm, SW/7/4pm + 2278' soaring ceiling/2pm.
65% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -22° to +45° cross. SoaringPredictor info is 2 days old. It should be good, I will see you at the hill.
Hindsight: Good & Sure.
Saturday: Maybe: W/6knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.
Sunday: Maybe: W/4knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.

Thursday, 2015/2/5. 10:42am
Sunset at 5:22pm. RASP: NE/4knot(10mAlt)/2pm, ENE/4/3pm, SE/4/4pm. Weather.com: NNW/4mph/2pm, WSW/10/3pm, W/6/4pm, Sunny, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: ESE/10knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: (1 day old) W/5mph/2pm, W/5/3pm, NE/5/4pm + 2917' soaring ceiling/2pm.
35% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -158° to +180° cross. RASP puts us in a wind eddy of E 15 mph wind between us and Beaumont. 10:40am observation: NE 9-14 mph at Poppet Flats (behind mountain).
Hindsight: Bad & Guess.
Friday: Good: SW/9knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.
Saturday: Bad: WNW/7knot/3pm. Mostly sunny, 0% chance of rain.

Wednesday, 2015/2/4. 9:13am
Sunset at 5:21pm. RASP: SW/5knot(10mAlt)/2pm, S/5/3pm, SSE/3/4pm. Weather.com: NW/4mph/2pm, WNW/6/3pm, WNW/6/4pm, Sunny, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: NW/5knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: W/6mph/2pm, W/6/3pm, NW/6/4pm + 2278' soaring ceiling/2pm.
45% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -67° to +90° cross. RASP puts us in a wind eddy of E 17 mph wind between us and Beaumont.
Hindsight: Bad & Sure.
Thursday: Bad: WNW/5knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain. In a wind eddy.
Friday: Good: SW/9knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.

Tuesday, 2015/2/3. 8:12am
Sunset at 5:20pm. RASP: W-WNW/4knot(10mAlt)/2pm, W-WNW/5/3pm, WNW/4/4pm. Weather.com: WNW/6mph/2pm, W/6/3pm, W/6/4pm, Mostly sunny / Partly cloudy, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: WNW/10knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: SW/8mph/2pm, SW/8/3pm, W/9/4pm + 2260' soaring ceiling/2pm.
50% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction 0° to +67° cross. If you trust SoaringPredictor the most, then you will be fine. Low soaring ceiling.
Hindsight: Good & Sure. Jean-Noel gets 64 min from 800' launch and reaching 4700' MSL. Darrel gets about 30 min from the 650' launch.
Wednesday: Bad: NNW/4knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.
Thursday: Bad: NW/3knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.

Monday, 2015/2/2. 8:10am
Sunset at 5:19pm. RASP: SW/4knot(10mAlt)/2pm, SW/4/3pm, WSW/4/4pm. Weather.com: W/5mph/2pm, W/6/3pm, W/5/4pm, Sunny, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: NW-NNW/5knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: W/5mph/2pm, W/5/3pm, NW/2/4pm + 2260' soaring ceiling/2pm.
45% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction 0° to +112° cross. RASP predicts 10 mph ENE wind between us and Banning. Light wind predicted. Full sun will help upslope breeze to some extent.
Hindsight: Bad & Sure. Longest flight was 20 min by Jean-Noel.
Tuesday: Maybe: W/5knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.
Wednesday: Bad: WNW/5knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.

Sunday, 2015/2/1. 8:15am
Sunset at 5:18pm. RASP: WNW/5knot(10mAlt)/2pm, N/4/3pm, ENE/7/4pm. Weather.com: WNW/4mph/2pm, WNW/5/3pm, WNW/5/4pm, Sunny, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: NW/5knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: W/5mph/2pm, W/5/3pm, NW/3/4pm + 2991' soaring ceiling/2pm.
35% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -158° to +135° cross. RASP predicts we will be in a wind eddy of ENE wind between us and Banning. Full sun may help local upslope breeze beyond forecasted wind.
Hindsight: Bad & Sure.
Monday: Maybe: W/3knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.
Tuesday: Maybe: WSW/5knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.

Saturday, 2015/1/31. 8:18am
Sunset at 5:17pm. RASP: NNW/3knot(10mAlt)/2pm, N/7/3pm, ENE/15/4pm. Weather.com: NNE/7mph/2pm, NNE/7/3pm, NE/6/4pm, Mostly sunny, 5% chance of rain. NOAA: E/5knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: N/2mph/2pm, N/2/3pm, N/2/4pm + 2894' soaring ceiling/2pm.
30% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -158° to +180° cross. In the lee of North wind split by San Gorgonio Mtn. Forecast is for light but unfavorable wind direction, maybe local convection can prevail.
Hindsight: Bad & Sure.
Sunday: Maybe: WSW/4knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.
Monday: Maybe: W/4knot/3pm. Partly cloudy, 0% chance of rain.

Friday, 2015/1/30. 10:09am
Sunset at 5:16pm. RASP: W/8knot(10mAlt)/2pm, SW/5/3pm, S/7/4pm. Weather.com: SE/6mph/2pm, Calm/0/3pm, NW/5/4pm, Mostly cloudy / Cloudy / Showers, 10-35% chance of rain. NOAA: W/10knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: SW/8mph/2pm, SW/8/3pm, SW/10/4pm + 2260' soaring ceiling/2pm.
35% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -90° to +90° cross. Cloudiness reducing thermals. Chance of rain. 10:02am observation: NE 12-21 mph at Poppet Flats (behind mountain).
Hindsight: Bad & Sure.
Saturday: Maybe: Var/1knot/3pm. Partly cloudy, 5% chance of rain. In the lee of North wind split by San Gorgonio Mtn.
Sunday: Maybe: SSW/4knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.

Thursday, 2015/1/29. 12:18pm
Sunset at 5:15pm. RASP: S/5knot(10mAlt)/2pm, S/5/3pm, S/6/4pm. Weather.com: SW/12mph/2pm, SSW/4/3pm, SSW/3/4pm, Cloudy, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: W/5knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: SE/12mph/2pm, SE/12/3pm, SE/10/4pm + 2260' soaring ceiling/2pm.
25% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -90° to +45° cross. Cloudiness reducing thermals. 12:09pm observation: ESE 6-7 mph near 650' launch. 12:13pm observation: NE 15-26 mph at Poppet Flats (behind mountain). Warning: Moderate Santa Ana winds.
Hindsight: Bad & Sure.
Friday: Bad: SW/4knot/3pm. Showers, 40% chance of rain. NW/10not/4pm.
Saturday: Bad: WNW/5knot/3pm. Partly cloudy, 20% chance of rain. In the lee of North wind split by San Gorgonio Mtn.

Wednesday, 2015/1/28. 10:46am
Sunset at 5:14pm. RASP: ENE/10knot(10mAlt)/2pm, ENE/12/3pm, ENE/17/4pm. Weather.com: ENE/8mph/2pm, ENE/14/3pm, N/6/4pm, Partly cloudy / Mostly cloudy / Cloudy, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: E/15knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: NE/15mph/2pm, NE/15/3pm, NE/17/4pm + 2260' soaring ceiling/2pm.
15% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -158° to +180° cross. Cloudiness reducing thermals. 10:45am observation: NE 20-29 mph at Poppet Flats (behind mountain). Warning: Moderate Santa Ana winds.
Hindsight: Bad & Guess.
Thursday: Bad: NNE/5knot/3pm. Cloudy, 5% chance of rain. In the lee of North wind split by San Gorgonio Mtn.
Friday: Bad: NNE/5knot/3pm. Showers, 60% chance of rain.

Tuesday, 2015/1/27. 9:45am
Sunset at 5:13pm. RASP: W/5knot(10mAlt)/2pm, WNW/5/3pm, WNW/5/4pm. Weather.com: SW/3mph/2pm, WNW/6/3pm, WNW/5/4pm, Sunny / Mostly sunny, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: E/10knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: N/3mph/2pm, N/3/3pm, NE/9/4pm + 2260' soaring ceiling/2pm.
35% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -135° to +180° cross. Despite sunshine, humid ground reducing thermals. 9:43am observation: NE 10-14 mph at Poppet Flats (behind mountain). Warning: Light to Moderate Santa Ana winds.
Hindsight: Bad & Guess.
Wednesday: Bad: ENE/15knot/3pm. Partly cloudy, 0% chance of rain.
Thursday: Bad: ENE/9knot/3pm. Cloudy, 20% chance of rain.

Monday, 2015/1/26. 12:45pm
Sunset at 5:12pm. RASP: ENE/27knot(10mAlt)/2pm, ENE/25/3pm, ENE/25/4pm. Weather.com: NE/19mph/2pm, NE/14/3pm, ENE/13/4pm, Cloudy, 0-25% chance of rain. NOAA: E/15knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: NE/20mph/2pm, NE/20/3pm, E/15/4pm + 2260' soaring ceiling/2pm.
3% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -158° to +180° cross. 12:43pm observation: NE 25-40 mph at Poppet Flats (behind mountain). Warning: Moderate to Strong Santa Ana winds.
Hindsight: Bad & Sure.
Tuesday: Bad: N/7knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.
Wednesday: Bad: ENE/17knot/3pm. Partly cloudy, 0% chance of rain.

Sunday, 2015/1/25. 12:31pm
Sunset at 5:11pm. RASP: E-ENE/23knot(10mAlt)/2pm, E-ENE/23/3pm, E-ENE/31/4pm. Weather.com: ENE/35mph/2pm, E/26/3pm, E/27/4pm, Sunny, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: E/20knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: E/30mph/2pm, E/30/3pm, E/26/4pm + 2260' soaring ceiling/2pm.
3% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -158° to -135° cross. Easy job to make predictions this weekend. 12:29pm observation: E 23-38 mph at Poppet Flats (behind mountain). Warning: Strong Santa Ana winds.
Hindsight: Bad & Sure.
Monday: Bad: ESE/6knot/3pm. Showers, 40-60% chance of rain between 2-4pm.
Tuesday: Bad: WNW/5knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.

Saturday, 2015/1/24. 11:26am
Sunset at 5:10pm. RASP: ENE/39knot(10mAlt)/2pm, ENE/38/3pm, ENE/39/4pm. Weather.com: ENE/36mph/2pm, E/36/3pm, E/30/4pm, Sunny, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: E/20knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: E/36mph/2pm, E/36/3pm, E/24/4pm + 2260' soaring ceiling/2pm.
2% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -158° to -135° cross. 11:23am observation: E 23-51 mph at Poppet Flats (behind mountain). Warning: Strong Santa Ana winds.
Hindsight: Bad & Sure.
Sunday: Bad: E/22knot/3pm. Mostly sunny, 0% chance of rain.
Monday: Bad: ENE/18knot/3pm. Showers, 60% chance of rain.

Friday, 2015/1/23. 10:30am
Sunset at 5:09pm. RASP: ENE/18knot(10mAlt)/2pm, ENE/16/3pm, ENE/12/4pm. Weather.com: ENE/28mph/2pm, ENE/27/3pm, N/11/4pm, Sunny, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: ENE/15knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: NE/21mph/2pm, NE/21/3pm, NE/17/4pm + 2260' soaring ceiling/2pm.
15% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -158° to +180° cross. 10:27am observation: NE 20-34 mph at Poppet Flats (behind mountain). Warning: Moderate Santa Ana winds.
Hindsight: Bad & Guess.
Saturday: Bad: ENE/24knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.
Sunday: Bad: ENE/33knot/3pm. Mostly sunny, 0% chance of rain.

Thursday, 2015/1/22. 11:33am
Sunset at 5:08pm. RASP: ENE/35knot(10mAlt)/2pm, ENE/33/3pm, ENE/33/4pm. Weather.com: ENE/15mph/2pm, NE/14/3pm, ENE/15/4pm, Cloudy / Mostly cloudy, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: E/25knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: NE/29mph/2pm, NE/29/3pm, NE/26/4pm + 2260' soaring ceiling/2pm.
10% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -158° to +180° cross. 11:29am observation: NE 12-18 mph near 650' launch. 11:30am observation: NE 16-27 mph at Poppet Flats (behind mountain). Warning: Strong Santa Ana winds.
Hindsight: Bad & Sure.
Friday: Bad: ENE/19knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.
Saturday: Bad: E/33knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.

Wednesday, 2015/1/21. 9:51am
Sunset at 5:07pm. RASP: W/5knot(10mAlt)/2pm, W/3/3pm, S/4/4pm. Weather.com: SSE/7mph/2pm, SE/9/3pm, NNW/7/4pm, Sunny, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: ESE/5knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: W/5mph/2pm, W/5/3pm, SE/2/4pm + 2913' soaring ceiling/2pm.
25% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -112° to +112° cross. In the lee of North wind split by San Gorgonio Mtn.
Hindsight: Bad & Guess.
Thursday: Bad: ENE/32knot/3pm. Partly cloudy, 0% chance of rain.
Friday: Bad: ENE/23knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.

Tuesday, 2015/1/20. Hindsight: Good & Sure. Jean-Noel gets 33 min from 650' launch and reaching higher than 800' over LZ, 10 min for Charles & Bill. Jordan got 25 min after hiking to 1450' launch.

Monday, 2015/1/19. Hindsight: Bad & Guess

Sunday, 2015/1/18. Hindsight: Bad & Guess

Saturday, 2015/1/17. Hindsight: Bad & Sure

Friday, 2015/1/16. 8:04am
Sunset at 5:03pm. RASP: ENE/13knot(10mAlt)/2pm, ENE/12/3pm, ENE/13/4pm. Weather.com: NNW/4mph/2pm, NNW/4/3pm, NNW/3/4pm, Mostly sunny / Partly cloudy, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: ENE/15knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: E/10mph/2pm, E/10/3pm, NE/13/4pm + 2260' soaring ceiling/2pm.
25% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -158° to +180° cross. 8:02am observation: ENE 14-23 mph at Poppet Flats (behind mountain). Warning: Moderate Santa Ana winds.
Hindsight: Bad & Guess. Recorded conditions of weak wind and poor direction at times.
Saturday: Maybe: SSE/5knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain. In a wind eddy from E wind in Banning pass.
Sunday: Bad: WNW/3knot/3pm. Partly cloudy, 0% chance of rain.

Thursday, 2015/1/15. 10:09am
Sunset at 5:02pm. RASP: ENE/17knot(10mAlt)/2pm, ENE/19/3pm, ENE/19/4pm. Weather.com: N/5mph/2pm, NW/6/3pm, NE/5/4pm, Sunny, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: E/20knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: E/22mph/2pm, E/22/3pm, E/21/4pm + 2260' soaring ceiling/2pm.
20% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -158° to +180° cross. 10:05am observation: ENE 16-33 mph at Poppet Flats (behind mountain). Warning: Moderate Santa Ana winds.
Hindsight: Bad & Guess. As expected, recorded conditions became progressively worse after 3:30 pm.
Friday: Bad: ENE/13knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.
Saturday: Maybe: S/5knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain. In a wind eddy from ENE wind in Banning pass.

Wednesday, 2015/1/14. 8:09am
Sunset at 5:01pm. RASP: NW/5knot(10mAlt)/2pm, WNW/5/3pm, W/5/4pm. Weather.com: NNW/5mph/2pm, NNW/6/3pm, NNW/5/4pm, Sunny, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: E/20knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: E/16mph/2pm, E/16/3pm, E/16/4pm + 2260' soaring ceiling/2pm.
25% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -135° to +112° cross. In the lee of North wind split by San Gorgonio Mtn.
Hindsight: Bad & Sure.
Thursday: Bad: ENE/19knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.
Friday: Bad: ENE/17knot/3pm. Mostly sunny, 0% chance of rain.

Tuesday, 2015/1/13. Evening before
Sunset at 5:00pm. RASP: E/8knot(10mAlt)/2pm, E/7/3pm, E/3/4pm. Weather.com: NNW/7mph/2pm, N/7/3pm, N/5/4pm, Sunny, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: ENE/10knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: S/5mph/2pm, S/5/3pm, E/10/4pm + 3345' soaring ceiling/2pm.
40% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -158° to +135° cross. All forecasts taken the evening before (no time in the morning). In the lee of North wind split by San Gorgonio Mtn.
Hindsight: Bad & Sure.
Wednesday: Bad: ESE/7knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.
Thursday: Bad: E/21knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.

Monday, 2015/1/12. Evening before
Sunset at 4:58pm. RASP: SW/5knot(10mAlt)/2pm, SW/4/3pm, SW/3/4pm. Weather.com: WNW/5mph/2pm, WNW/5/3pm, W/4/4pm, Mostly sunny / Partly cloudy, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: NW/5knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: W/6mph/2pm, W/6/3pm, NW/7/4pm + 2260' soaring ceiling/2pm.
45% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction 0° to +90° cross. All forecasts taken the evening before (no time in the morning). Light wind, questionable direction.
Hindsight: Bad & Sure.
Tuesday: Bad: SSE/7knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain. In the lee of North wind split by San Gorgonio Mtn.
Wednesday: Bad: NE/15knot/3pm. Mostly sunny, 0% chance of rain.

Sunday, 2015/1/11. Evening before
Sunset at 4:57pm. RASP: SSW/4knot(10mAlt)/2pm, Var/3/3pm, SE/3/4pm. Weather.com: ESE/3mph/2pm, NW/4/3pm, NW/3/4pm, Showers, 40-45% chance of rain. NOAA: ENE/5knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: SW/3mph/2pm, SW/3/3pm, N/1/4pm + 2260' soaring ceiling/2pm.
25% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -158° to +135° cross. All forecasts taken the evening before (no time in the morning). Rain likely.
Hindsight: Bad & Sure. Rain on/off until late afternoon.
Monday: Maybe: W/5knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.
Tuesday: Bad: NE/8knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.

Saturday, 2015/1/10. Evening before
Sunset at 4:57pm. RASP: WSW/5knot(10mAlt)/2pm, W/5/3pm, W/4/4pm. Weather.com: WSW/5mph/2pm, WSW/6/3pm, WSW/5/4pm, Partly cloudy / Mostly cloudy, 5% chance of rain. NOAA: S/5knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: SW/6mph/2pm, SW/6/3pm, SW/5/4pm + 2260' soaring ceiling/2pm.
40% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -45° to +45° cross. All forecasts taken the evening before (no time in the morning). Light wind. Cloudiness will reduce thermals.
Hindsight: Bad & Sure. A 5 min flight for Jean-Noel.
Sunday: Bad: ENE/15knot/3pm. Showers, 50% chance of rain.
Monday: Maybe: SW/5knot/3pm. Mostly sunny, 10% chance of rain.

Friday, 2015/1/9. 11:07am
Sunset at 4:56pm. RASP: WSW/3knot(10mAlt)/2pm, W/3/3pm, NE/8/4pm. Weather.com: WSW/5mph/2pm, W/5/3pm, W/3/4pm, Mostly cloudy / Cloudy, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: Calm/0knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: W/3mph/2pm, W/3/3pm, W/1/4pm + 2260' soaring ceiling/2pm.
30% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction +22° to +180° cross. Light wind. Cloudiness will reduce thermals.
Hindsight: Bad & Sure.
Saturday: Maybe: W/5knot/3pm. Mostly cloudy, 10% chance of rain.
Sunday: Bad: ENE/15knot/3pm. Showers, 50% chance of rain.

Thursday, 2015/1/8. 11:57am
Sunset at 4:55pm. RASP: SW/5knot(10mAlt)/2pm, SW/5/3pm, SW/5/4pm. Weather.com: SW/4mph/2pm, SW/6/3pm, SW/4/4pm, Partly cloudy / Mostly cloudy, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: ESE/5knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: W/2mph/2pm, W/2/3pm, S/1/4pm + 2260' soaring ceiling/2pm.
40% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -112° to +45° cross. Light wind. Cloudiness will reduce thermals.
Hindsight: Bad & Guess. It was sunnier than forecasted, but wind strength remained marginal.
Friday: Maybe: SW/3knot/3pm. Mostly cloudy, 0% chance of rain.
Saturday: Maybe: WSW/5knot/3pm. Partly cloudy, 20% chance of rain.

Wednesday, 2015/1/7. 11:42am
Sunset at 4:54pm. RASP: E/5knot(10mAlt)/2pm, ENE/8/3pm, ENE/12/4pm. Weather.com: NW/5mph/2pm, SW/4/3pm, S/3/4pm, Partly cloudy, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: E/15knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: E/8mph/2pm, NE/8/3pm, NE/12/4pm + 2260' soaring ceiling/2pm.
25% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -158° to +180° cross. 11:40am observation: NE 21-28 mph at Poppet Flats (behind mountain). Warning: Moderate Santa Ana winds.
Hindsight: Bad & Guess.
Thursday: Bad: E/6knot/3pm. Partly cloudy, 0% chance of rain.
Friday: Maybe: Var/4knot/3pm. Partly cloudy, 0% chance of rain.

Tuesday, 2015/1/6. 8:09am
Sunset at 4:54pm. RASP: ENE/24knot(10mAlt)/2pm, ENE/24/3pm, ENE/22/4pm. Weather.com: NE/7mph/2pm, NE/7/3pm, NE/7/4pm, Sunny, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: E/20knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: E/22mph/2pm, NE/22/3pm, NE/22/4pm + 2260' soaring ceiling/2pm.
20% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -158° to +180° cross. 8:08am observation: NE 19-32 mph at Poppet Flats (behind mountain). Warning: Moderate Santa Ana winds.
Hindsight: Bad & Guess. Recorded wind near 650' launch shows deteriorating conditions after 2pm.
Wednesday: Bad: E/12knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.
Thursday: Bad: Var/4knot/3pm. Partly cloudy, 0% chance of rain. In a wind eddy.

Monday, 2015/1/5. 8:10am
Sunset at 4:53pm. RASP: ENE/26knot(10mAlt)/2pm, ENE/26/3pm, ENE/24/4pm. Weather.com: NE/7mph/2pm, NE/8/3pm, NE/7/4pm, Sunny, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: E/25knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: E/22mph/2pm, E/22/3pm, NE/22/4pm + 2260' soaring ceiling/2pm.
15% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -158° to +180° cross. 8:08am observation: NE 23-33 mph at Poppet Flats (behind mountain). Warning: Moderate to Strong Santa Ana winds.
Hindsight: Bad & Sure.
Tuesday: Bad: ENE/22knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.
Wednesday: Bad: E/8knot/3pm. Partly cloudy, 0% chance of rain.

Sunday, 2015/1/4. 8:09am
Sunset at 4:52pm. RASP: ENE/14knot(10mAlt)/2pm, ENE/15/3pm, ENE/16/4pm. Weather.com: NNE/4mph/2pm, NNE/3/3pm, NE/3/4pm, Partly cloudy, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: ENE/15knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: E/5mph/2pm, E/5/3pm, NE/13/4pm + 2664' soaring ceiling/2pm.
30% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -158° to +180° cross. Warning: Moderate Santa Ana winds.
Hindsight: Bad & Sure.
Monday: Bad: E/16knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.
Tuesday: Bad: ENE/15knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.

Saturday, 2015/1/3. 8:10am
Sunset at 4:51pm. RASP: WSW/5knot(10mAlt)/2pm, W/5/3pm, W/4/4pm. Weather.com: WNW/4mph/2pm, WNW/5/3pm, WNW/4/4pm, Sunny, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: WNW/5knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: W/5mph/2pm, W/5/3pm, W/3/4pm + 3124' soaring ceiling/2pm.
45% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction +22° to +67° cross. Last cold day. Predicted wind direction not ideal. Best chance is to launch early and from a higher launch.
Hindsight: Bad & Guess.
Sunday: Bad: ENE/13knot/3pm. Partly cloudy, 0% chance of rain.
Monday: Bad: ENE/18knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.

Friday, 2015/1/2. 8:10am
Sunset at 4:50pm. RASP: SW/5knot(10mAlt)/2pm, SW/4/3pm, SSW/4/4pm. Weather.com: WNW/4mph/2pm, WNW/4/3pm, NW/3/4pm, Sunny, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: Calm/0knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: SW/5mph/2pm, SW/5/3pm, SW/2/4pm + 2260' soaring ceiling/2pm.
45% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -22° to +90° cross. Low soaring ceiling predicted by RASP. Light wind, but in a favorable direction. Full sun is best hope for thermals and sufficient upslope breeze. Cold, 54 F max in LZ at 2-3pm.
Hindsight: Bad & Sure. But lots of short flight by students & pilots. Mike had a 19 min PG flight from the 1450' launch aroud 1pm.
Saturday: Maybe: Var/4knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain. In a wind eddy of 13 mph E wind between us and Banning. Last cold day.
Sunday: Bad: ENE/14knot/3pm. Mostly sunny, 0% chance of rain. Warmer temperatures from this day on.

Thursday, 2015/1/1. 11:58am
Sunset at 4:50pm. RASP: W/4knot(10mAlt)/2pm, W/4/3pm, E/4/4pm. Weather.com: N/2mph/2pm, ENE/1/3pm, Calm/0/4pm, Sunny, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: E/5knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: S/2mph/2pm, S/2/3pm, E/6/4pm + 2260' soaring ceiling/2pm.
40% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -158° to +135° cross. In the lee of North wind split by San Gorgonio Mtn. Max of 48 F at 3pm.
Hindsight: Bad & Guess.
Friday: Maybe: WSW/4knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.
Saturday: Bad: S/4knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain. In a wind eddy of 15 mph E wind between us and Banning.


2014 Forecasting


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